Moderna Inc. experienced a sharp 18% drop in stock value on Monday after the company significantly reduced its 2025 revenue forecast by $1 billion. The biotech firm now projects revenue between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion for 2025, a decline from its earlier guidance of $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion issued in September. The revised forecast reflects multiple challenges, including falling demand for its COVID-19 vaccine and increased competition in the market.
Jamey Mock, Moderna’s Chief Financial Officer, highlighted uncertainties influencing the outlook, including shrinking vaccination rates and intensified competition, particularly from Novavax, which recently partnered with Sanofi to co-commercialize its COVID-19 vaccine globally. Moderna’s share of the U.S. retail COVID-19 vaccine market dropped to 40% in 2024 from 48% in 2023, signaling further challenges in retaining market dominance.
The company also noted a broader decline in vaccination rates, down 7% year-over-year in the U.S. retail sector. Additional factors include potential delays in manufacturing agreements and uncertainty surrounding revaccination recommendations for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Despite these hurdles, Moderna plans to cut cash expenses by $1 billion in 2025, with further cost reductions of $500 million anticipated in 2026.
This announcement follows a steep decline in demand for Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax, which generated $6.7 billion in revenue in 2023, down from $18 billion in 2022. The company’s newly launched RSV vaccine, mResvia, has yet to generate significant sales. Total revenue for 2024 reached approximately $3.1 billion, meeting earlier projections but highlighting the sharp contraction in pandemic-related demand.
Looking forward, Moderna aims to diversify its portfolio with plans to launch 10 new products within the next three years, including a next-generation COVID-19 vaccine and a combination flu-COVID shot. The company anticipates securing regulatory approval for three products in 2025 alone, reinforcing its reliance on messenger RNA (mRNA) technology as a core driver of innovation. Despite these efforts, the announcement has sparked concerns about Moderna’s ability to sustain long-term growth, particularly as the company expects to burn over $3 billion in cash during 2025.
Moderna’s stock, already under pressure, has declined more than 60% over the past 12 months. This plunge reflects broader market skepticism about the company’s post-pandemic trajectory, even as broader biotechnology indices like the iShares Biotechnology ETF and the S&P 500 have shown mixed performances over the same period. The revenue guidance adjustment and cost-cutting initiatives were announced ahead of Moderna’s presentation at the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference, a pivotal event for the industry that could shape investor sentiment further. – By MENA Newswire News Desk.